Sent always by 8am-ET.

ProForecasts-OvernightText Tue 10Jan2012:  Intl-mkts 1.5-2%, US-pre-mkts UP 0.8%, positive US economic expectations!

2011-RESULTS:  All forecasts live-trades documentation here.
Model Portfolios:  KISS:  41.1%, ACTive:  83.2%, AGGressive:  101.5%!
By Investment:  Futures:  147.3%, Options:  131.7%, Metals:  98.2%,
Stock-Plays:  70.7%, ETFs:  21.7%, Stocks:  11.8%!

2003-2011 9-YEAR RESULTS:  All forecasts live-trades documentation here.
KISS:  131.5% (3.4X SP500), ACTive: 173.6% (4.5X SP500), AGGressive: 191.9% (5X SP500)!

Sent always by 8am-ET.

ProForecasts-OvernightText Tue 6Jan2012:  Intl-mkts/US-pre-mkts UP very slightly, expecting disappointing Jobs-Report!

2011-RESULTS:  All forecasts live-trades documentation here.
Model Portfolios:  KISS:  41.1%, ACTive:  83.2%, AGGressive:  101.5%!
By Investment:  Futures:  147.3%, Options:  131.7%, Metals:  98.2%,
Stock-Plays:  70.7%, ETFs:  21.7%, Stocks:  11.8%!

2003-2011 9-YEAR RESULTS:  All forecasts live-trades documentation here.
KISS:  131.5% (3.4X SP500), ACTive: 173.6% (4.5X SP500), AGGressive: 191.9% (5X SP500)!

Subscribe free here to receive ProForecasts more detailed time-frames and ranges with specific investments.

(o) =  at 7:30amET only since market currently open
UP 0.50%+, flat/up 0 to 0.50%, flat/dn 0 to -0.50%, DN -0.50% or more
ST = Short-Term (weeks), MT = Medium-Term (months),  LT = Long-Term (quarters = three-months), AT = all

These are the overview forecasts for public presentation.
More detailed forecasts with more specific time-frames and ranges for specific investments are available by subscription FREE here.

DJIA(12,217)/SP500(1257):  US stock market will have a 5%+ correction DN in January to about 11,700/1200 or lower, respectfully.  The US stock market will drop DN to about 9000/930, respectfully, in 2012, then slowly crawl UP to 10,000 by end of year.

Gold(1580)/Silver(28.15)/Copper(3.48):  Metals will go UP 10%, with typical volatility in Silver, in January/February to about 1700/30/3.80 or higher, respectfully.  Metals will go UP, 20%+ for Gold, 30%+ for Silver and 25%+ for Copper or higher in 2012.

FTSE(5572):  UK stock market will have a 4%+ correction DN in January to about 5350 or lower.
DAX(6075):  German’s stock market will have a 3%+ correction DN in January to about 5895 or lower.
Serious talk of the beginning of a two-tier EU will be brought up to consider how it could be structured.  FTSE and DAX will drop DN about 25% in 2012 and then slowly at first, soon quicker than US, UP 15% by end of year.

NIKKEI(8455):  Japan’s stock will have a 5%+ correction in January to about 8035 or lower.  Japan’s stock market will be rather dead and parallel the US stock market mostly in 2012.

Shanghai-China(2199):  While China’s stock market may take a quick dip from the Western markets 4%-5%+ correction in January, it will maintain it’s current range FLAT and even go slightly UP to above 2200.  I do not forecast a hard correction, bubble-burst, as has been speculated by many.  I forecast they will manage a slow tightening fairly well.  China’s stock market will remain relatively stable for 2012 and be UP 10% by end of year.

Sensex-India(15,804):  While India’s stock market may take a quick dip from the Western markets 4%-5% correction in January, it will maintain it’s current range FLAT.  The India stock market will be relatively FLAT.  India’s stock market will be sluggish and stuck at times but end UP 5% by end of year.

Bovespa-Brazil(57,829):  While Brazil’s stock market may take a quick dip from the Western markets 4%-5% correction in January, it will maintain it’s current range FLAT and start to go UP nicely to about 58,000 or higher.  Brazil will be one of the best stock markets and economies in 2012 and end UP 20% by end of year.

FREE SUBSRIPTIONS:  Screen-shots of all forecasts executed in live-trades and sum-total documentation included.
ProForecasts-Public (here):  As above, overview forecasts for the major international markets, metals and oil.
ProForecasts-Private (here):  More detailed forecasts with more specific time-frames and ranges for specific investments.
ProForecasts-OverNight Text (here):  Quick update text on the overnight markets and critical news at 7:30am-ET Monday through Friday.
ProForecasts-Active Text (here):  Twice weekly statistically highly probable Active Stock-Plays for one to two weeks.
ProForecasets-Day Text (here):  Daily E-Mini SP500, Daily Stock-Plays and Currencies at 8:30am-ET Monday through Friday.

2011-RESULTS:  All forecasts are executed in live-trades for sum-total documentation here.
Model Portfolios:  KISS:  41.1%, ACTive:  83.2%, AGGressive:  101.5%!
By Investment:  Futures:  147.3%, Options:  131.7%, Metals:  98.2%,
Stock-Plays:  70.7%, ETFs:  21.7%, Stocks:  11.8%!
2003-2011 9-YEAR RESULTS:  All forecasts are executed in live-trades for sum-total documentation here.
KISS:  131.5% (3.4X SP500), ACTive: 173.6% (4.5X SP500), AGGressive: 191.9% (5X SP500)!

© 2012, Jeffrey D Sonnenburg, 3636 Campbell Ave, Tucson, AZ  85719, 520-344-2808
™ ProForecasts, ProPredict, FinancialDrudge.  JeffreyDSonnenburg-site  FromJeff-blog
“I pray that you may prosper and be in good health, even as your soul prospers.”  3 John 1:2

-Silas Kiplagat will win the 1500-meter race at the Summer Olympics in London. The time will be 3:33:22.

-Obama will drop Joe Biden from the ticket. Obama will want a Veep that has a chance to be a viable presidential candidate. He will chose Hillary Clinton.

-Green Bay will beat Denver in the Super Bowl. (Millions of Christians will be disappointed).

-Mitt (the suit) Romney will be the Republican presidential candidate. The nomination will be a fight to the very end. Newt (the fool) Gingrich will come close, but will not get the nod. Romney will announce that his running mate will be South Carolina Governor, Nikki Haley. Her presence on the ticket will give Mitt a chance.

-Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate (Green) He will get 10% of the popular vote. He will upend any chance the Republicans have.

-The presidential election will go to Obama. Ending up with only 44% of the vote, he will not have a mandate.  The battleground states will be Pennsylvania and Ohio. Billions will be spent on getting the votes in those states. Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Ohio will go with Romney. The electoral vote margin will be very narrow as a result.

-The Kepler spacecraft (link) will identify a planet that has the capacity to sustain life (the ultimate safe haven). The scientists at CERN will confirm the observation  of particles exceeding the speed of light. These developments will result in significant rethinking by the scientific community.

-The Senate will be split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. The new VP will have deciding votes on several key issues.

-Republicans will retain their majority in the House. Gridlock will be the outcome. There will be no new legislation of significance in 2012. A lost year.

-Iran will attempt to disrupt sea traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Naval exercises by NATO, USA and China will be required to escort tankers through troubled waters. There will be an incident culminating in shots being fired. It will scare the hell out of everyone, but full military action will be avoided.

-Iraq will fall into sectarian violence. Car bombings will beset the country. The Kurds, in the north, will attempt to separate themselves from Baghdad. Turkey will get involved as a result of border problems. In the south (Basra/oil ports), the local Shia government will ask neighboring Iran, to help bring stability. The Iranians will establish a police presence.

-Brent crude prices will swing between a low of $80 and a high of $155. The highest level will be reached in September.

-Australia will suffer from a significant economic slowdown. The A$ will fall to 90 versus the buck.

-Cyprus will make a significant new gas find. This will result in territorial claims by Turkey. The UN, lead by Russia, will get involved in the dispute.

-Europe’s economic problems will not be solved. Every effort will be made to kick the can down the road. Neither the can nor the road will collapse; that will happen in 2013. EU GDP will struggle to hold zero.

-It will be confirmed that Iran has nukes and the capacity to deliver them. Iran will successfully test fire a Shahab 3c missile. Israel will not attack Iran.

-The US housing market will stabilize. Rental costs will rise by 7%. This, coupled with extremely low debt costs, will increase the demand for homes. In addition, the costs of constructing new homes will soar due to rising costs of materials. Virtually everything used to build a home (from cement to shingles) will rise in price by 10%. Construction of new homes will remain muted as a result.

-During the year, the ECB will be forced to actively intervene in the EU bond market on multiple occasions. Ten-year yields for Italy will range from 5 to 8%. Spanish yields will rise to 10% at one point. French bonds will reach 7%. The enormous refinancing requirements of EU countries and banks will be a constant problem. The market will become obsessed with the weekly bond auctions. There will be many disappointing results.

-The EU banks will struggle, kept alive by LTROs and E150B of new equity injections into the banks (a la Tarp). Public assistance to the banks will exceed E1 Trillion. The EU banks will not adopt the Basel Core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9% in June; the planned recapitalization will be shelved for a year.  There will be much discussion about the scale of the government’s involvement, which will be recognized as unsustainable. By year’s end, the noose will be tighter and the financial options greatly diminished. By December 2012,  the Euro Zone won’t be expected to survive another year.

-The Swiss National Bank will maintain the 1.20 peg to the Euro. By the end of the year, the talk will be about how much longer the peg will continue. The SNB will acknowledge that the peg was a temporary measure. The speculation will be about how long “temporary” actually is.

-The Euro will range from a high of 1.4 to a low of 1.15. The low for the year will occur in November.

-The Yen will (finally) weaken. The low for the USDYEN will be 76.5 the high will be 90. (It’s a great short). The problem for Japan will be its 200% debt to GDP. Global investors will shun the Japanese bond markets. Ten-year yields will rise to over 2% as a result. While Japan has gotten away with its excessive debt for years and global investors always had reasons to park cash in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), there will be no reasons left in 2012.

-As the US’s presence in Afghanistan winds down, the Taliban will retake the country. The chaotic US exit will be compared with the end of the Viet Nam war.

-The Syrian government will fall. The country will face an uncertain future. There will be sectarian violence in Libya. Sophisticated weapons, including SAM missiles will be used. In Egypt, Field Marshal Tantawi, will consolidate power.  Protests will continue throughout the region. The MENA economies will broadly suffer.

-The S&P will range from a low of 900 to a high of 1400. The high for the year will occur before June.

-The US GDP will languish. Growth will range from 1.5 to 2%. There will be clear evidence of a slowdown by mid-year. Unemployment will fall to as low as 8.5%, but will end the year back above 9%. The BLS will report 1.6mm of new jobs created during the year but the “birth/death” model will reduce that by 600,000. Labor force participation will continue to decline.

-Modest economic activity and core inflation above 2% will tie the Federal Reserve’s hands for the first part of the year. Politics will prevent it from acting prior to the election. In December of 2012, the Fed will be free to initiate another round of QE -  an $800 billion Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) will follow. The Fed’s new POMO operations will be divided equally between Treasury bonds and Agency Mortgage paper.

-The Vix will be volatile. The average for the year will be 30. It will exceed 45 twice.

-Greece will continue pretending it wants to be in the EU and tied to the Euro, until July. Its deteriorating economy and inability to service its restructured debt will force Greece to leave the EU and re-establish the Drachma. The New Drachma will trade as high as 1,000 to the dollar (800/Euro). When the Drachma is brought back (over a weekend), the Greeks will formally default on their external debt. This won’t be the crisis that everyone fears, but it will add to the instability in the other peripherals. Populations in Ireland and Portugal will protest that their countries should follow Greece’s steps.

- The Academy Award winners:

-North Korea will be a problematic. Counter to expectations, Kim Jung-Un will not be the actual ruler. The generals will conspire with Kim’s uncle, Jan Song Taek, to take over leadership. There will be an occasional pop shot from north to south. The real trouble will come when NK boards and then sinks a S. Korean fishing vessel. This will bring US aircraft carriers off the shores of NK. China will hate this development. A nasty incident is the most likely outcome.

-The Miami Heat will fail to make the playoffs. LA will beat Boston.

-Keynesian economic thinking will be further discredited in 2012. The pump-priming Keynesians had their day in the sun, and now people will want a different approach. Paul Krugman will write a total of 100 blogs decrying this development. Larry Summers will write an OpEd for the WSJ warning that the US faces a strategic crisis if it does not contain the trajectory of the national debt.

-Gold will be very volatile. It will fall to below $1400 at one point. It will end the year above $2000.

-There is a significant risk of a big economic hiccup at the end of the year. The election has deferred dozens of tax/spending issues to 1/1/13. There is enough deflationary firepower built into the system to trigger a big slowdown. Post election, there will be just weeks to sort it out, or face the music. The drama and the pain of the just completed election will make it impossible to avoid a conflict.

-Japan will confront two divergent issues. Debates regarding the future development of nuclear energy for civilian use will arise as the true costs of the disaster at Fukushima are realized. Significant portions of the country will have to be abandoned. Costs of encapsulating and cleaning up will exceed $50 billion. At the same time, a growing force within the country will push to develop tactical nuclear weapons. The US’s mandatory budget cuts for its military will elicit an extraordinary change which will take years to play out. Japan will lose confidence that its “protector” will be able to protect it.

-India will surprise everyone. GDP growth will fall from 9% to 3% (well under stall speed). Inflation will exceed 10%. The trade and current account deficit will rise. The Rupee will hit 60 per dollar.

-China’s GDP will fall to 4%. China has already overspent in infrastructure development. The buildout of empty cities will slow and unemployment will rise rapidly. This will stress the country and lead to political protests in many cities.

-Tiger Woods will win a major.

-China will continue to fund the west. It will allocate more capital to the core countries of Europe. China will get trade deals in exchange for its willingness to buy bonds. The holdings of US treasury debt will decline modestly for the year. The Chinese will react to the ongoing pressure from the US to force the Yuan to appreciate by doing precisely the opposite. The CHY will be worth the same next year as it is today.

-Bank of America will be forced to pare down its asset base. The stock will spend most of the year under $5. The subordinated debt will trade cheap.

-Goldman Sachs will go private. There will be many layoffs. The Squid will end up stronger than ever.

-The San Francisco Giants will win the World Series. The Yanks will be the loser.

-In March, it will finally be determined that MF Global used re-hypothecation to fund its operations. The customer losses will be attributed to this activity. Realized customer losses will exceed $1B. JPM will be identified as one of the banks that grabbed MFG assets in the final days. Customers will file civil claims against JPM, but those will be dismissed. Criminal charges  will not be filed against MFG, Corzine nor JPM. The flaws in the system will be attributed to Reg. T. The Fed will promise a thorough review of the country’s margin rules. Nothing will be completed until 2013.

-AAPL will trade as high as $450. It will end the year under $350. The company will come out with a TV that won’t be much of a success. Apple will lose out to Amazon (and others) in the “Cloud”. This will prove to be a strategic error.

-The cost of solar panels will fall to a level where large scale, privately funded solar farms become viable. The debt for these farms will be functionally secured by a public utility and will be repackaged with shorter maturities that have a AAA rating. The lowest tranches of debt will have returns as high as 20%. Wall Street will love it and so will investors. Some utility stocks will do well as they have secured a source of renewable energy that meets the recently legislated requirements (RECs).

-Boeing’s shares will fall to $55. There will be problems with the Dream Liner.

-Dividend stocks will underperform the broad averages. The observation will (finally) be made that this is a very crowded trade and 2% does not compensate investors for their risks.

-Creative Cause (son of Giant’s Causeway) will win the Kentucky Derby.

-The Chevy volt will suffer from numerous battery problems. There will be fires that result in serious injuries. The future of GM’s electric car will come into question. The stock will fall to the teens. Tesla’s outlook will become uncertain. Obama’s investment in Tesla will be a campaign issue.

-La Nina conditions will persist for the first six months of the year, bringing a series of big storms to Asia. Substantial new flooding will occur in the Philippines and Thailand. West Texas will have another dry year, the central states will have above average rain, and the North East will have a very bad winter.

-Silver will follow gold up and down. It will underperform gold. It won’t hit $50.

-Narco violence in Mexico will escalate. There will be gun play on the border. Mexico will reiterate its position that the problem is the demand from the gringos, not the supply from Mexico. This thinking will lead to renewed discussion on legalization of Marijuana. Phillip Morris’s stock will rise above $90 in anticipation.

-BRIC investments will continue to underperform. Several big hitters will repudiate this investment strategy. That will mark the bottom of these markets on a comparative basis.

-Global food inflation will continue to be a problem. Global growth will advance by 2%, the cost of feeding ourselves will increase by 5%. Asia/India will bear the biggest brunt of the increasing cost of food. Wheat prices will rise 12%.

-US inflation will remain on the high side. Core will average 2.5% (1/2% above the Fed’s target). CPI will come in at 3.8%. Real inflation will be much higher. Treasury Tips will underperform. The Ten-Year Tips/Coupon spread will widen to 2.75%.

-Few countries will avoid social protests and demonstrations. Many will turn violent. America will not be spared. The angst of the people will be directed at their leaders, their lenders and the IMF. A redo of 2011.

-The election will spur debate on the future of America’s entitlement programs. There will be broad based agreement that the time has come to address the problems with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Politicians will try to divert the focus away from Social Security by pointing fingers at the Disability Insurance side of SSA. While it’s correct that this program is a complete disaster, the DI Fund is not the problem.  The Retirement Fund is the real problem. The attention that DI will get is just a diversion from what is actually wrong with America’s favorite entitlement program. This will be a “young” versus “old” fight. Both sides will come to understand this.

-The summer of 2012 will bring the largest polar ice melt in history. The Mayan calendar will end with no consequence.

Bank of America flops again about money-raising and puts Merrill Lynch, the world’s largest retail brokerage, up for sale, having acquired it in a $48.7 billion stock-swap deal during the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Brokers at Merrill rejoice, and Canadian giants TD Bank Group and RBC Royal Bank take a serious look at acquiring Merrill.
- Gary Kaminsky

I predicted tablet prices would drop rapidly, sales would explode (especially for the iPad) and that Amazon would introduce a color media device. I predicted that South by Southwest Interactive would struggle with growth and sprawl, and that Netflix would edge away from DVD rentals and would battle with studios and cable companies as it became a major media player.

On the other hand, I expected “The Social Network” to walk away with the Best Picture Oscar (to be fair, I hadn’t seen “The King’s Speech” yet), that app stores would collapse and that someone would figure out the magic code for bringing location services, coupons and mobile phones together (it hasn’t happened).

So what’s ahead for 2012? I’ve installed an app update for the crystal ball, so let’s hope we do better this time.

The beginning of the end of game consoles— The tepid response and rapid price cut after Nintendo’s 3DS launch and early problems Sony is having with its new PS Vita system in Japan point to a larger problem in the gaming space. Nobody wants to spend a lot of money on a video-game console anymore, especially when you can get a super-powered smartphone or tablet that’s much more versatile for $100-$400.

That could mean trouble for Nintendo’s successor to the Wii, the Wii U, which incorporates a tabletlike controller and is expected to be out by the 2012 holiday season. Microsoft has extended the life of its aging Xbox 360 with the Kinect motion controller and beefed-up Xbox Live offerings, but all the major game console companies are going to have a tough time with their next-next-generation systems. I can see the next versions of the Xbox 360 or the PlayStation incorporating mobile gaming into a powerful, portable system that can be used on the go.

TV 2.0 — Speaking of Xbox, Microsoft has done a really nice job incorporating voice commands and more TV content for those who own an Xbox 360 and a Kinect. The rumor mill has been buzzing with word that Apple might roll out its own interactive HDTV with Siri voice commands making TV navigation easier. But while Kinect voice commands aren’t as impressive as what Apple has done with Siri on the iPhone 4S, they still work. Expect Microsoft and Apple to face off in an effort to continue expanding their TV offerings and attracting cable cord-cutters, but don’t expect a significant Apple TV move until late in the year, if at all in 2012.

Wearable sensors get real— Jawbone’s innovative and stylish Up fitness gadget was beset by problems including battery issues and buggy units that the company had to replace. But it offered a tantalizing glimpse of wearable, nice-looking tech that you could carry with you all the time and that works with your smartphone to keep track of everything from exercise to sleep patterns and eating habits. Cheap sensors and the power of gadget we already carry around with us will make wearable devices go mainstream.

What’s Apple doing?— The death of former CEO Steve Jobs could mean that Apple will be more risk-averse, sticking to whatever plan he laid out for the next few years. Luckily, Jobs apparently planned pretty far ahead. Expect a new design for the iPhone in late summer, more super-slim MacBook Air (perhaps a 15-inch model?) and a more aggressive redesign of the iPod. Of course, there’ll be an iPad 3 by late spring (with a higher-resolution screen) and the iMac is due for a new look as well. Expect competitors to follow suit with their own a-lot-like-Apple hardware designs. On the software side, the rise of Spotify could put pressure on Apple to introduce its own monthly subscription music streaming service. It’ll also introduce versions of Siri to the iPad and to its Mac computers.

RIP checking in— Austin’s location-based service Gowalla will end its service early this year as some of its staffers move on to Facebook. But that doesn’t mean that Foursquare has won the war of checking-in to restaurants and shops. In fact, Foursquare will have to figure out a way to gracefully move from that kind of service to something that’s more intuitive and that still benefits its members and businesses. The days of manually checking in with your phone, though, will become a memory.

Some of last year’s black swans came true, including the US 30-year falling to 3% and gold rising to $1800.

Here’s the new list (via Pragmatic Capitalism):

1. The stock of Apple Inc plummets 50 per cent from 2011 high

Going into 2012, Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will be unable to maintain its market share of 55 per cent (three times as much as Android) and 66 per cent on the iOS and iPad

2. EU declares extended bank holiday during 2012

The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding needs – particularly those in Italy – and the EU debt crisis returns with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally caves in and drops 25 per cent in short order, prompting EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday – closing all European exchanges and banks for a week or more.

3. A yet unannounced candidate takes the White House

In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 per cent of the popular vote. Three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system, and conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone with a strong programme for real change throws his or her hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 per cent of the popular vote.

4. Australia goes into recession

The effects of the slowing up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific push other countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining and natural resources. And as China’s demand for these goods weakens, Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash –a half decade after the rest of the developed world.

5. Basel III and regulation force 50 bank nationalisations in Europe

As 2012 begins, pressure will mount on the European banking system as new capital requirements and regulatory pressure force banks to deleverage in a great hurry. This creates a fire sale on financial assets as there are few takers in the market. A total freeze of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make bank-runs, as depositors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and several known commercial bank brands cease to exist.

6. Sweden and Norway replace Switzerland as safe havens

As we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country’s economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. Flows into the two countries’ government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-yearrates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.

7. Swiss National Bank wins and catapults EURCHF to 1.50

Switzerland’s persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency will continue to pay off in 2012. With Swiss fundamentals –particularly export related – continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as1.50 during the year.

8. USDCNY rises 10 per cent to 7.00

As marginal returns from building million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a “recession”, meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US Dollar – buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis – and send the pair up to 7.00 for a 10 percent increase.

9. Baltic Dry Index rises 100 per cent

Lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron ore demand.

10. Wheat prices to double in 2012

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. With 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle, bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-24/markets/30554907_1_basel-iii-cent-bank#ixzz1hbae65Os

Private version by subscription only.

 These 19 stocks are within less than 1% of their all-time Highs and so could correct significantly in any down cycle. I AGREE with this and some of these were in our KISS(Unofficial)-Stock Model-Portfolio so we’ll most likely be considering them again for February to April 2012 when large-caps normally cycle UP and before what we forecast to be a huge correction in April.

1. AAPL
2. AMGN
3. CVX
4. GOOG
5. HD
6. JNJ
7. KO
8. MCD
9. MON
10. MRK
11. NKE
12. PEP
13. PG
14. PM
15. ROST
16. SBUX
17. V
18. WMT
19. XOM